One of the major revelations of the 2023 general election was former Governor of Anambra State, His Excellency, Mr. Peter Obi who put up a cameo participation in the said election when he made an impressive showing despite going into the poll as an underdog.
Obi in his first major independent contest, he came a close third position polling 6, 101, 533 votes behind the eventual winner and incumbent, Pres. Bola Tinubu and former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in that order.
Coming fourth is the former Kano State governor, Sen. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso in the keenly contested election.
It must be noted that the election is reputed to be the closet presidential poll in the history of the country since the countryt attained independence in 1960. A critical appraisal of the demographics of the votes attributed to him shows that majority of the electorates that voted for him were Ibo and new generation youth.
If a critical appraisal of what is expected to happen in the forthcoming general election is to be made, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) will likely win the forthcoming election should the gladiators of the opposition to go the same way. This is because the same likely scenario will play out.
This means that a divided opposition will eventually pave the way for the re-emergence of the Bola Tinubu as the president if the various opposition figures do not close their ranks in the interest of the country.
Particularly for Peter Obi, he needs to reappraise his strategies towards the forthcoming election and the only realistic step is to forge a workable alliance with like minds with popular voting blocs in the country in a manner reminiscence of the pre-2015 election when many political parties came together to form APC.
In this manner, we are looking at the possibility of Peter Obi joining forces with Kwankwaso to wrest power from the ruling party. In this wise, he would have to utilize the Tinubu formula to become the Nigerian president.
The slight modification would be that rather than wait in the wings like Tinubu, he would have to deputize Kwankwaso for 8 years of two terms with a view to taking over from the former Kano State governor after his exit from power.
With the combination of the two, it would be that the Northern bloc and the Eastern bloc reminiscence of Northern and Western blocs in 2015 would be desirable for the progress of the country ahead of the poll.
It would be recalled that in 2011 both the defunct Congress for Progressives Change (CPC) and Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) hitherto attempted merger and the talk collapsed like pack of cards over Pres. Tinubu insistence to deputize Buhari at all cost, a suggestion former president Buhari vehemently rejected because of same faith ticket, Buhari who publicly broke down in tears as a result of the inability of the opposition parties to come together.
The failure of the merger easily paved the way for PDP to retained power for another four years.
Interestingly in 2015, it was from the bitter experience that brought all the opposition parties and other like-minds i.e the nPDP that led to the historical merger which ousted PDP from power till date.
Unarguably, with the retirement of former president Buhari, Sen Kwankwaso is next in line in terms of popularity and acceptably. This confer more electoral advantages on him over Mr. Obi, and with the combination of the two, it would be that the Northern bloc and the Eastern bloc reminiscence of Northern and Western blocs in 2015 would be desirable for the progress of the country ahead of the poll, especially now that APC government has made life more difficult for Nigerians with the fail renew hope mantra.
But if Mr. Obi choose to go it alone, he would be repeating the mistake of former president Buhari who contested four times before he finally made it through opposition parties coalition.
